The United States and China are building rival AI blocs, and a growing number of countries are trying to stay in both. Kazakhstan, a country of about 21 million people, joined the U.S.-led Pax Silica group in June, then roughly three weeks later signed on in Shanghai as a founding member of China's World AI Cooperation Organization.
Zhaslan Madiyev, Kazakhstan's AI minister, handled both signings. He traveled to Washington in June to join Pax Silica, and his signature in Shanghai placed Kazakhstan alongside 28 other initial founding members of the Chinese organization, a list that includes Pakistan and Russia.
Washington does not want partners straddling the line. President Donald Trump has framed the contest as "whoever wins AI, wins," and the U.S. State Department said that "Countries can't be trusted partners in Pax Silica while substantively engaging in initiatives that advance a competing vision for super intelligence." In August, a draft State Department letter addressed to 35 countries that signed an "AI Opportunity Statement" in June warned they could be excluded from the U.S.-led partnership if they also joined a competing Chinese framework. The letter's summary line: "To be part of everything is to be part of nothing."
Key facts
- 01Kazakhstan joined the US-led Pax Silica in June, then China's World AI Cooperation Organization about three weeks later.
- 02Kazakhstan is one of 29 initial founding members of China's organization, alongside Pakistan and Russia.
- 03An August State Department draft letter targeted 35 countries that signed a June "AI Opportunity Statement."
- 04Kazakhstan signed an Nvidia investment deal worth up to $10 billion for a "data center valley."
- 05AidData counts Chinese AI-related grants and loans in at least 77 low- and middle-income countries.
Pax Silica, launched last year, is a U.S.-backed framework for semiconductor, AI and critical-mineral supply chains. About two dozen countries, including Australia, Japan and the UK, had joined as of August. Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the World AI Cooperation Organization in July, with a pitch built around China's open-weight AI models.
China's embassy in Washington said the two countries "should leverage respective strengths in AI" and that "AI should not be owned by major countries." U.S. officials and AI companies have accused China of large-scale distillation of American models, a charge Beijing denies while arguing that the U.S. is seeking an AI monopoly.
Kazakhstan's ties run in both directions. Earlier this year it signed an investment deal with Nvidia worth up to $10 billion to build a "data center valley." Local officials say Chinese foreign direct investment reached a record $2.8 billion in 2025, and Xi met President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in July to expand Belt and Road cooperation.
“We don't want this binary choice.”— Dana Masalimova, Former Kazakhstan diplomat and scholar at Harvard's Davis Center
Other governments are hedging too. Indonesia, which holds large nickel and copper reserves, joined China's organization. Mari Pangestu, vice chair of Indonesia's National Economic Council, made the case for keeping both doors open at a University of Hong Kong Business School event.
“We should be able to be part of both, put it that way. And choose the best system.”— Mari Pangestu, Vice chair, Indonesian National Economic Council
Singapore, where Anthropic is setting up its latest Asia office, is considering joining China's organization. In Saudi Arabia, the AI startup Humain unveiled a platform in September built on an open model from a Chinese AI company, while the kingdom also holds a deal with Nvidia. Japan, closely aligned with the U.S. on security and semiconductors, will not reject cheaper Chinese models for "lower-risk applications."
Europe has its own contender. France's Mistral released a new model this month that outperforms some advanced Chinese models. China, for its part, is closing the gap in chipmaking and AI but still trails top U.S. capabilities.
China's reach extends deep into developing markets. William & Mary's AidData lab counts Chinese official grants and loans for AI-related projects in at least 77 low- and middle-income countries, with Nigeria, Zambia, Ghana, Bangladesh, Senegal, Cameroon and Kenya among the top recipients. Pew Research Center has found people in middle-income countries growing more positive and trusting toward China on AI.
Aalok Mehta, director of the Wadhwani AI Center at CSIS, said many countries don't want to pick a side because each technology stack carries advantages and disadvantages. Kyle Chan of the Brookings Institution's John L. Thornton China Center described these swing countries as gaining leverage, since Beijing must court third countries while Washington already has a large allied network.
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