Nvidia's growing role as a financier of AI infrastructure is facing its first real market test, as shares of CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN have each fallen at least 30% in October. The three neocloud providers sit at the center of a web of guarantees, compute purchase commitments and equity stakes that Nvidia has built up over the past six to 12 months to keep GPU buyers funded.
The selloff has reached Nvidia too. The chipmaker's stock has declined for three straight weeks, putting its October loss at 7.6%. Nvidia declined to comment on its financing arrangements.
The scale of those arrangements shows up in Nvidia's filings. Its July quarterly filing disclosed $36 billion in off-balance-sheet AI cloud agreements that backstop neocloud customers. The same filing listed guarantees of up to $105 billion for chips, land and power tied to a proposed 10-gigawatt OpenAI data center in Pike County, Ohio, which must use Nvidia hardware for at least 20 years, plus $20 billion in future data center leases where Nvidia is the initial tenant.
Key facts
- 01CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN have each lost at least 30% of their share value in October 2026.
- 02Nvidia's July filing disclosed $36B in off-balance-sheet AI cloud agreements backstopping neocloud customers.
- 03Nvidia has guaranteed up to $105B for a proposed 10GW OpenAI data center in Pike County, Ohio.
- 04Nvidia will buy up to $6.3B of CoreWeave compute if no other buyer emerges; CoreWeave's 2031-32 bonds yield over 15%.
- 05Nvidia stock has fallen three straight weeks, with an October loss of 7.6%.
By its August quarterly filing, Nvidia reported more than $500 billion in off-balance-sheet commitments over the coming years, most of them maturing through fiscal 2029. That same month, CEO Jensen Huang announced a $500 billion financing initiative with six large asset managers that includes residual value guarantees of up to $125 billion on GPU financing. Nvidia's February annual filing made no reference to AI cloud agreements at all.
Nvidia also holds an equity portfolio valued at $99 billion as of the second quarter, including stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic. It has committed $2 billion to Brookfield's AI Infrastructure Partners Fund, which is seeking $10 billion, and has backed KKR's $11 billion Helix Digital Infrastructure vehicle and Valor Equity Partners' $5.4 billion compute fund in undisclosed amounts.
CoreWeave is the most closely watched test case. Nvidia has agreed to buy up to $6.3 billion of CoreWeave's computing capacity if CoreWeave cannot find another buyer. CoreWeave carries about $51.6 billion in total debt, including roughly $35 billion in notes, bonds and loans. Its credit default swap spread has climbed above 11%, and its bonds due in 2031 and 2032 are yielding more than 15%.
Nebius announced a senior secured credit facility from Citi on Oct. 22 to fund data center development and GPU purchases, and its shares still fell 6% in morning trading that day. Elsewhere in the sector, Firmus canceled its IPO, while Nscale and SB Energy have not updated their listing plans.
Huang has argued that neocloud demand remains exceptionally strong and that the binding constraint is working capital, not customers. He has also said CoreWeave does not need Nvidia's backstop and that its cost of capital is coming down.
Analysts are split on the risk. David Trainer, founder and CEO of New Constructs, estimates Nvidia's off-balance-sheet liabilities at a net present value above $153 billion for fiscal 2026, more than $100 billion higher than a year earlier, and warned that problems follow if compute demand falls short of very high expectations. Brian Stutland, a portfolio manager at Equity Armor Investments, said the market anxiety reflects doubts about whether neoclouds' future contracts will hold. Gene Munster, founder of Deepwater Asset Management, forecast last month that Nvidia will generate $700 billion in revenue next year, enough to finance its customers.
Warren Hosseinion, co-founder of Compute Labs, described Nvidia as reluctantly taking on an insurer-like role while the industry matures. Tom Hoad, executive director of product innovation at insurance broker Howden, said insurers cannot yet fully cover the risk of GPUs losing value but will likely help enable transactions in the right circumstances.
Moody's says guarantees are the fastest-growing category of off-balance-sheet financing in 2026. David Gonzales, a vice president at Moody's, said the agency excludes such guarantees from corporate buyers' debt calculations but monitors the exposure, and that chip values staying above contractual residual amounts would reduce many of the financing risks.
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